Football Pace

Historical Pace

This table shows the expected number of points a championship team would take from each match, based on historical data. To read, find the row for the position of the opponent, then note whether the game was home or away and go to that column. The value in that row and column is how many points a typical championship team takes from that match.

For example, the hardest match of the year for a championship team is away to the team that finishes 2nd; looking at the row for Position 2 and the column for Away, we see that championship teams typically take 1.00 points from that fixture. On the other hand, the easiest match is home to the team finishing last; looking at the row for position 20 and the column for Home, we see that championship teams typically take 3.00 points from that fixture.

Home: 48.33 · Away: 41.01 · Total: 89.34
Position	Home	Away
2	1.90	1.00
3	1.90	1.40
4	2.10	1.44
5	2.30	1.78
6	2.30	1.80
7	2.33	1.80
8	2.50	2.10
9	2.56	2.11
10	2.60	2.20
11	2.60	2.30
12	2.60	2.30
13	2.60	2.30
14	2.67	2.30
15	2.78	2.56
16	2.80	2.60
17	2.80	2.60
18	3.00	2.67
19	3.00	2.75
20	3.00	3.00

Estimated Standings

This table shows the projected standings for the current year. This accounts for the unpredicatability of the table during the early part of the season by adding in results from the previous season to make up the difference. More concretely:

If a team has played at least half of its schedule, then we just use the current season's results, and project that out to a full season.
If a team has not yet played half of its schedule, then we double their current season results (to make sure we're weighting current season performance more than previous season performance), then then we scale down the previous season's results to make up the difference to a full season.
If a team is newly promoted, then for the previous season's performance, we substitute the performance of the worst non-relegated team from the previous season instead.

#	Team	2024			2023			Projected
#	Team	Played	Points	×	Played	Points	×	Played	Points
1	Paris SG	11	29	2	34	76	0.35	34	84.82
2	Monaco	11	23	2	34	67	0.35	34	69.65
3	Lille	11	19	2	34	59	0.35	34	58.82
4	Marseille	11	20	2	34	50	0.35	34	57.65
5	Lyon	11	18	2	34	53	0.35	34	54.71
6	Nice	11	17	2	34	55	0.35	34	53.41
7	Lens	11	17	2	34	51	0.35	34	52
8	Reims	11	17	2	34	47	0.35	34	50.59
9	Brest	11	13	2	34	61	0.35	34	47.53
10	Toulouse	11	15	2	34	43	0.35	34	45.18
11	Auxerre	11	16	2	34	32	0.35	34	43.29
12	Strasbourg	11	13	2	34	39	0.35	34	39.76
13	Rennes	11	11	2	34	46	0.35	34	38.24
14	Nantes	11	10	2	34	33	0.35	34	31.65
15	Angers	11	10	2	34	32	0.35	34	31.29
16	St Etienne	11	10	2	34	32	0.35	34	31.29
17	Le Havre	11	9	2	34	32	0.35	34	29.29
18	Montpellier	11	7	2	34	42	0.35	34	28.82